Security and Development

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In line with current events and the concerns of Sahel actors, FERDI's work analyses the sources and risks of conflict.

Objectives

Identifying the sources of conflict. FERDI's work measures the frequency of violent events, and seeks to identify the factors that determine them. In 2019, FERDI created an Internal Violence Index (IVI). The IVI aims to compare the level of internal violence for 130 developing countries. It is a composite indicator of 9 variables grouped into 4 dimensions - internal conflict, crime, terrorism, and political violence.
Identifying risks and preventing conflicts. A conflict risk indicator was developed during 2019 and finalized in 2020 by FERDI (Sosso Feidounou and Laurent Wagner) in collaboration with the Foundation Prospective & Innovation. This indicator is accompanied by an analysis of conflict factors and means of prevention. Feindouno S., Wagner L. (2020). The determinants of internal conflict in the world: How to estimate the risks and better target prevention efforts? Ferdi, Fondation Prospective et Innovation (FPI), September 2020, 102 p.

FERDI is developing an IT programme concerning IDPs in the Central African Republic for the World Bank. Sosso Feindouno, FERDI Research Fellow, received the World Bank Group's DEC VPU Team Awards for FY21 (2021).

Impact of international agricultural commodity price volatility on food security. Alexandros Sarris' work examines the impact of commodity price volatility on food security. In 2016, Ferdi published the collective book Commodity market instability and asymmetries in developing countries: Development impacts and policies, edited by Sarris A. In 2022, this issue unfortunately finds resonance in the news and Rabah Arezki underlines in an interview for RFI the consequences and risks linked to inflation for the countries of the African continent.

Study

Security Expenditure and its Crowding-Out Effects on Development Financing in G5 Sahel Member Countries

The study is structured into five complementary sections:

A review of academic literature on the crowding-out effect of public spending, which serves to establish the theoretical framework for the analysis.
An examination of international data on security expenditure across all developing countries, sourced from the most reliable data providers.
A longitudinal descriptive analysis of security and development spending in the five G5 countries, based on data collected by the Chaire Sahel from local administrations, aiming to identify potential correlations between the two types of expenditure.
A panel econometric study of the G5 countries to test the potential correlations identified in the previous section.
The formulation of recommendations based on the study’s findings, accompanied by an action plan for their implementation.

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