Conflicts within nations: Estimating the Risk to Improve Prevention

October 01, 2020,

Presentation of the book "Les conflits internes dans le monde: Estimer les risques pour cibler la prévention" (English version forthcoming) by Paul Derreumaux, Patrick Guillaumont, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, Tertius Zongo and the authors of the book, Sosso Feindouno, and Laurent Wagner.

In the context of the COVID-19 health crisis, the rise of internal and international conflicts is all the more worrying as it contributes to the fragility of certain already sensitive areas (South East Asia, Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa...).

The factors of confrontation are variable (economic, social, ethnic, or religious) and require adapted interventions that take into account the disparity of contexts.

The Leaders for Peace Foundation and the Fondation Prospective et Innovation have jointly commissioned a report from FERDI on the determinants of internal conflicts around the world, with a focus on the Sahelian zone, which is particularly vulnerable. On this occasion, a webinar was held on Thursday, October 1, 2020, on the theme "Conflicts within nations: Estimating the Risk to Improve Prevention."

Jean-Pierre RAFFARIN, Former Prime Minister, President of the Fondation Prospective et Innovation, President of Leaders for Peace and Patrick GUILLAUMONT, President of FERDI, Tertius ZONGO, Former Prime Minister of Burkina Faso, Director of the Sahel Chair at FERDI, and Paul DERREUMAUX, Economist, Founder and Honorary President of the Bank of Africa Group commented on the conclusions of this report.

Sosso FEINDOUNO and Laurent WAGNER, Researchers at FERDI, and authors of the study presented the results of their analyses applied to the Sahel region. 

The study on the determinants of internal conflict around the world.

At the request of the Fondation Prospective et Innovation (FPI) and Leaders for Peace (LPP), the Foundation for Studies and Research on International Development (FERDI) conducted a study on the determinants of internal conflict around the world. Its objective is to estimate the risks of conflict to better target prevention.
  
This study carried out by Sosso FEINDOUNO and Laurent WAGNER, Research Officers at FERDI, uses an innovative empirical approach. It is intended to inform governments and partners of countries facing the threat of violence.
 
It is universal in scope, but special attention is paid to the Sahel region. This study is the subject of a joint publication available in French on FERDI’s website and in English forthcoming in October 2020.