Impact of Decentralised Electrification Projects

To date, impact studies on mini-grid projects have been rare, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, many of these projects have not achieved their objectives of improving access to electricity. An analysis by FERDI of more than 300 projects in developing countries revealed that around 50% failed to sustainably improve access, findings confirmed by additional data and a 2020 IRENA report.

Secondly, collecting data for standard impact assessments is complex and costly. Yet measuring the impact of decentralised electricity, including mini-grids, is crucial to electrifying 1 billion people by 2050 who have no other connection options.

As part of Electriciens sans frontières' "Cafés Lumière" project in Madagascar, FERDI is assessing the impact of mini-grids in collaboration with the private operator Anka Madagascar.

↪  The method for assessing the impact of mini-grids on access to electricity and development is yielding its first results.

The inexpensive RCT method, developed by Jean-Claude Berthélemy, Mathilde Maurel, and Vincent Nossek, integrates NTL (Nighttime Lights) data from satellite observations with data from light field surveys of localities and service providers. This is the first time such an evaluation has been conducted for mini-grids. It covered 12 villages in Madagascar. Ultimately, the results of this work will enhance capacity for monitoring and evaluating mini-grid projects and planning investment programmes for electrification across the African continent. Preliminary results show a positive effect on electricity consumption and health. This work is being carried out in collaboration with Electriciens sans frontières.