Influence of public street lighting on NTL-based impact measurement of rural mini-grids: analytical background and case study in Madagascar
June 21, 2026
Reliable access to electricity is a key driver of economic and social development. Yet, by 2050, nearly one billion people could still rely on decentralised electricity solutions, particularly mini-grids, as their primary source of electricity.
To guide these investments effectively, robust evidence is needed to measure their actual impacts on households and local development.
FERDI develops innovative impact evaluation methods to generate reliable evidence that supports policymakers, development partners and rural electrification operators in designing more effective energy access policies.
Conventional impact evaluations rely on extensive household surveys that are often costly and time-consuming, making them difficult to replicate on a large scale.
To address this challenge, Jean-Claude Berthélemy (FERDI), Mathilde Maurel (Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne – CNRS – Université Paris 1) and Vincent Nossek (Cerdi) developed an innovative methodology combining:
This approach provides a faster, more cost-effective and robust way to evaluate the impacts of rural mini-grid projects.
Applied for the first time in twelve villages in Madagascar, it represents one of the first rigorous experimental evaluations of mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The methodology has been implemented through the Cafés Lumière project, led by Électriciens sans frontières in partnership with the private operator Anka Madagascar.
The evaluation measures the effects of electricity access on household living conditions and local development.
Initial findings show positive impacts on:
At this stage, however, no statistically significant effects have been observed on education outcomes or perceptions of safety.
These initial findings are presented in Experimental Impact Study on a Micro-Grid Project in Rural Madagascar: The Café Lumière Project (Jean-Claude Berthélemy, Vincent Nossek and Victor Béguerie) and were also featured in an article published on the Entreprenante Afrique website.
Building on the lessons learned in Madagascar, FERDI is now extending this evaluation methodology to several West African countries.
This work is carried out in partnership with:
The programme forms part of the Growing Government Engagement in Energy Access initiative, funded by the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).
Its objective is to build a robust evidence base on the performance of rural mini-grids in order to improve the design, monitoring and evaluation of rural electrification policies.
