The determinants of internal conflict in the world: How to estimate the risks and better target prevention efforts?

Recent years have seen an increase in the number and intensity of armed conflicts. The dynamics of conflicts have been fuelled in particular by an increase in the number and intensity of terrorist incidents and an increasingly important part played by organised crime. However, the intensity of violence differs between regions of the world and the countries within them. These conflicts are the result of a variety of economic, social, demographic, climatic and geographic factors. This book, based on a retrospective basis, makes it possible to identify the main factors that trigger conflicts and to distinguish between structural and non-structural factors. It thus makes it possible to target prevention efforts on the root causes of violence. To this end, it presents an original index of conflict risk in developing countries. Distinguishing between structural risk and non-structural risk factors, the conflict risk index differs from most indices of political fragility.