VoxEU - Easy money, easy spending: A new take on the resource curse – Article de Rabah Arezki, Hieu Nguyen et Frederick Van Der Ploeg
cepr.org
September 07, 2025
The world is witnessing a renewed global scramble for critical minerals, strategic and rare earth elements– indispensable for energy and digital transitions. This global contest amid acute geopolitical rivalries, technological uncertainty, and mounting environmental pressures has consequences not only on the energy transition, but also on the development trajectories of many countries in the Global South.
In light of these dynamics, through cross-sector dialogue between academics, policymakers, industry representatives, and international organizations, the conference aims to provide a forum to explore the economic, geopolitical, and technological forces driving the demand for critical minerals, the implications for global trade, energy transition, and international relations as well as policy strategies that enable mineral-rich economies, particularly in the Global South, to capture a fair and sustainable share of the benefits.
This conference will discuss papers selected following the call for contributions for the special issue of the journal “The Scramble for Critical Minerals,” co-edited by Rabah Arezki (CNRS, CERDI & FERDI), Rick van der Ploeg (University of Oxford), and Christopher Adam (University of Oxford). Two sessions will also be organized focusing on public policy orientations, encouraging discussion between institutional actors, researchers, and the private sector.
The world is witnessing a renewed global scramble for critical minerals, strategic resources such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements that are indispensable to the twin energy and digital transitions. These minerals power batteries, semiconductors, and clean-energy technologies that underpin the transition to low-carbon growth. As demand accelerates, global economic powers are racing to secure access to these resources, most of which are concentrated in developing economies.
This competition is reshaping the global political economy in ways reminiscent of the nineteenth-century race for raw materials that fueled industrial revolutions. Today’s contest, however, unfolds amid acute geopolitical rivalries, technological uncertainty, and mounting environmental pressures. China currently dominates large segments of the critical minerals value chain, from extraction to processing, controlling between 60 and 80 percent of global supply. In response, the United States and the European Union are striving to diversify supply chains and secure their own access to these essential materials, often through partnerships and contracts in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia. The Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, has emerged as the “Saudi Arabia of critical minerals,” illustrating both the promise and peril of this new resource rush.
For the mineral-rich economies of the Global South, the implications are profound. The surge in demand could deliver unprecedented opportunities for growth and industrialization, yet it also risks deepening long-standing asymmetries between resource exporters and industrialized consumers. Weak institutions, opaque contracts, and volatile commodity markets have historically limited the developmental gains from resource booms. To ensure that the extraction of critical minerals translates into sustainable prosperity, resource-rich countries must strengthen governance and fiscal frameworks, negotiate transparent contracts, manage revenues effectively, and localize value addition.
The experience of Botswana’s diamond sector illustrates the potential of local participation: by acquiring a share in De Beers, Botswana succeeded in developing domestic diamond cutting and processing industries. Similar strategies could help mineral-rich countries move up the value chain and reduce dependence on raw exports.
At the same time, the scramble for minerals carries significant risks of social conflict, environmental degradation, and human rights violations. In regions such as the eastern DRC, competition for control of resource-rich territories continues to fuel violence and instability. Extraction activities are frequently associated with deforestation, biodiversity loss, water pollution, and harmful labor practices, including child labor. These challenges underscore the urgent need for stronger enforcement of environmental and social standards, and for international cooperation to ensure responsible sourcing and traceable supply chains.
As these dynamics intensify, the global contest over critical minerals will increasingly shape not only the trajectory of the energy transition but also the future of development for many countries in the Global South. How this race is managed, through governance, transparency, and cooperation, will determine whether it becomes a source of sustainable progress or renewed dependency.
It is in this context that FERDI and CERDI–Université Clermont Auvergne, in partnership with the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, are organizing a two-day international conference in Clermont-Ferrand on 26–27 November 2025, bringing together academics, policymakers, and institutional actors to examine the economic, political, and social dimensions of the global race for critical minerals.
Day 1 – Wednesday, 26 November 2025
09:00 – 09:30: Opening Remarks – Representatives of FERDI, CERDI, University of Oxford
09:30 – 09:45: Video by the President of the African Development Bank
09:45 – 11:00: Special Addresses:
11:30 – 13:00: Supply and Demand for Critical Minerals
14:00 – 15:15: Geoeconomics of Critical Minerals
15:45–16:30: Economic Policy for Critical Minerals
16:30 – 17:30: Policy Panel on Taxation and Industrial Policy for Critical Minerals
Day 2 – Thursday, 27 November 2025
09:00 – 10:15: Special Addresses:
10:45 – 12:15: Socio-Economic and Environmental Aspects of Critical Minerals
13:15 – 14:15: Macro-Development Aspects of Critical Minerals
14:45 – 16:00 – Policy Session on Economic Security and Critical Minerals
16:00 – 16:15: Closing remarks
