Lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements are reshaping global trade and great-power politics in ways reminiscent of the earlier scramble for natural resources. This column argues that the familiar resource-curse mechanisms still bite, but do so in a rather difference context characterised by a supply chain that is bifurcated between scattered extraction and Chinese-concentrated refining, global demand that is exposed to rapid within-class technological substitution, and the absence of a multilateral architecture comparable to the one that disciplined the oil age. This creates genuine Knightian uncertainty and emphasises the importance of smart contract design, appropriate fiscal policy – particularly on taxation – and the governance of supply chains.
