Approximating the first-order effects of AfCFTA tariff reductions on CO2 emissions

This paper explores how AfCFTA tariff reductions affect CO₂ emissions. Using sector-level data, we find that more protected sectors are also more carbon intensive, so liberalization risks favoring “dirtier” activities. However, for EAC and ECOWAS, tariff cuts on liberalized goods reduce average carbon intensity. A full liberalization scenario suggests intra-African trade could rise by 32% while emissions grow by 24%, implying a modest decline in emission intensity. AfCFTA thus expands trade but requires complementary green policies.