L’ironie du Corona: Épidémie de Covid-19 et développement en Afrique. Les 6 premiers mois (février – août 2020)

The study covers the first six months of the Covid-19 epidemic in the 56 countries and territories of Africa. It links epidemiological parameters (incidence, case-fatality) with demographic parameters (population density, urbanization, population concentration, fertility, mortality, age structure), with economic parameters (GDP per capita, air transport), and with public health parameters (medical density). Epidemiological data are cases and deaths reported to WHO, and other variables come from databases of the United Nations, the World Bank, and other agencies. Results show that the spread of Covid-19 was fairly rapid in Africa, although slower than in the rest of the world, since in 3 months all countries were affected, and in 6 months approximately 1.1 million people (0.1% of the population) were diagnosed positive for Covid-19. The dynamics of the epidemic were fairly regular between April and July, with a net reproduction rate R0 = 1.35, but tended to slow down afterwards, and the R0 fell below 1.0 at the end of July. The differences in incidence were very strong between countries, and were correlated primarily with population density and urbanization, and to a lesser extent with GDP per capita and the age structure of the population. The differences in case-fatality were smaller, and correlated primarily with the level of mortality in the population. Overall, Africa appeared very heterogeneous, with some countries severely affected while others very little.
Citation

Garenne M. (2020) L’ironie du Corona: Épidémie de Covid-19 et développement en Afrique. Les 6 premiers mois (février – août 2020), Ferdi Document de travail P271