The lockdown policy used in the Global North to combat COVID-19 has had the effect of transferring the excess mortality attributable to the virus to the Global South, thus avoiding excess mortality itself. This is due to (i) the major recession caused by this policy, (ii) its transmission to the South, and (iii) the excess mortality that this recession in the South has caused. A simple model illustrates the three stages of this transfer of excess mortality and suggests that the excess mortality thus induced by the recession in Africa is much greater than that which is directly due to COVID-19.
Guillaumont P. (2022) Comment le Nord a transféré au Sud son risque de surmortalité : un modèle simple, Revue d’économie du développement, vol. 29(1), pp. 5-16.
