Context
LDC IV Monitor is a partnership of eight globally reputed think tanks and international organisations which seeks to contribute to effective implementation of the commitments envisaged under the Istanbul Programme of Action (IPoA) adopted at the Fourth UN Conference for the Least Developed Countries (UN LDC IV) in 2011. Over the past several years LDC IV Monitor has built a solid track record in research, dialogues, policy influencing and outreach through its monitoring exercise and policy analysis concerning the development challenges of the LDCs. The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Dhaka, is the Secretariat of the partnership. In continuation of its work on IPoA, LDC IV Monitor plans to scrutinise the implementation status of the commitments laid out in the IPoA during the run-up to the Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the IPoA, which is to take place in Antalya, Turkey in May, 2016.
Objectives
The core objective of the proposed initiative is to contribute towards promoting inclusive growth through improvement of global governance in connection with the implementation of the IPoA. In doing so, LDC IV monitor will provide inputs from independent sources (rising above the traditional North-South divide) which are outside the intergovernmental process and feed into the preparatory discourse of the MTR.
Activities
The envisaged initiative will undertake the following four activities.
(i) Preparation of a set of research-based documents that will provide evidence-based analytical inputs to the MTR process by examining the status of implementation of the commitments in selected areas of the IPoA, particularly in the context of structural transformation of the economies of the LDCs.
(ii) Organisation of an expert group meeting in Paris to discuss the draft input documents and to raise awareness about the MTR process among national policymakers and other key stakeholders. Similar high-level meetings were organised earlier by the LDC IV Monitor in Paris, London, Dar es Salaam and Dhaka during December 2014, June 2013, February 2013 and September 2013, respectively.
(iii) Presentation of the draft resource documents in New York to sensitise the UN-centred development community (including the diplomatic missions) about evidence-based policy inputs coming from the research think tanks. LDC IV Monitor organised similar discussion in New York on 24 June 2013, and subsequently launched its first set of analytical (monitoring) reports in New York, in October 2014.
(iv) Organisation of a high-level side event at the Mid-Term Review Meeting in Antalya to present research outputs and highlight independent perspectives on the state of delivery of IPoA in the LDCs. Similar sessions were organised by the network members of the LDC IV Monitor during the UN LDC IV Conference in Istanbul in May 2011.
Outputs
The initiative intends to have the following four outputs.
Four policy papers on the following themes and an overview paper:
1. Examination of structural transformation and diversification in LDCs
The paper will track and assess the progress that has been made by individual LDCs since the adoption of the IPoA, in terms of attainment of structural transformation and inclusive growth in the economies. The variables against which this progress will need to be tested may include, inter alia, economic growth, macroeconomic stability, - composition of the GDP, investment, productive capacities, development of infrastructure, diversification of export basket, technology content of exports, structure of employment, skills enhancement, poverty and income distribution. The impact of slow global economic recovery, the falling commodity prices, and other global developments, and the consequent implications for economies will also need to be captured from the perspective of their relevance for structural transformation in the LDCs. In undertaking this study, the IPoA commitments in relevant areas, on the part of LDC governments, development partners and jointly, will be carefully examined.
2. Graduation status and prospect of LDCs
The IPoA had set the target of halving the number of LDCs by 2020. In view of this, the paper will review the progress made by individual LDCs against the three criteria for LDC graduation, and map where the LDCs stood in respect of those measures. Towards this end, the recent changes in the methodologies will also be taken into cognisance. Till date only two countries have graduated from the group, viz. Maldives in 2011 and Samoa in 2014. Equatorial Guinea and Vanuatu are scheduled to be taken out of the list of LDCs in June 2017 and December 2017, respectively. Another eight countries have made notable progress. The paper will identify a select group of LDCs which were on course towards graduation by 2020 examine the alignment of the graduation strategies with the inclusive growth strategies in these countries and identify areas where a thrust in policy interventions will be needed, both at domestic and global levels, in order to help these countries to successfully complete the journey by 2020. The study will also try to anticipate factors which will need to be kept in mind, and addressed, if the graduation is to be sustainable. The paper will also identify LDCs which were lagging behind in the race for graduation, identify the major reasons, and propose initiatives which will be necessary to help them stay on course for graduation. The study will also examine the relevant IPoA commitments by the LDC governments, development partners and jointly towards this end.
3. Implications of 2030 Agenda for LDCs in a comparative perspective
Given the vast landscape of commitments under SDGs, LDCs will have to set their own priorities at the country level for implementation. It is important to recognise that, not all LDCs are on the same plane towards implementing 2030 Agenda. In this context, the paper will examine the comparative situation of LDCs. Institutional strengthening, capacity development and awareness building will be crucial. However, global partnership and commitments in areas such as finance, trade, technology transfer etc. will also play key role in achieving SDGs.
4. Understanding emerging (and new) global challenges on LDCs
The study will identify the emerging and new challenges for LDCs. How existing challenges such as climate change and new challenges in the forms of migration and refugee crisis are going to influence the development paradigm in LDCs are of great concern. This is particularly important from the perspective of concessional financial flow to LDCs. With emerging and new challenges, LDCs, are at risk of receiving lower ODA and other support. Whether and how far that will have implications for LDCs’ graduation are issues to be examined.The study will make policy recommendations for addressing those challenges.
One expert group meeting in Paris to discuss the draft document based on the four papers
Sharing of a draft policy document with the policy community based in New York
One high-level side event in Antalya during the official meeting of the Mid-Term Review
Compiled volume with all four papers and policy perspectives
The proposed contribution will build on the two seminal reports of the LDC IV Monitor, viz. “Istanbul Programme of Action for the LDCs (2011-2020): Monitoring Deliverables, Tracking Progress – Analytical Perspectives” and the “Istanbul Program of Action for the LDCs (2011-2020): Monitoring Deliverables, Tracking Progress – Synthesis Report.”
Thus the immediate use of the outputs (resources) generated through the initiative will be in the context of the preparatory process of the MTR of IPoA. Concretely, the outputs of the initiative will be shared with wide-ranging stakeholders and fed into the official (UN) process. As the IPoA has a ten-year time horizon (till 2021), the outputs will be used as a reference document in the coming years by those concerned with development challenges of the LDCs, particularly in the context of implementation of Agenda 2030.
Once the outputs are ready, LDC IV Monitor will seek opportunities for their wider presentation in different platforms.
Outcome
It is expected that these activities will bring-in fresh perspectives imbuing the preparatory process with pluralistic assessment. More specifically, the initiative will result in:
Timeframe
The proposed initiative will be implemented by the LDC IV Monitor during January-July 2016.
Timeline of Activities and Output
Activities
Output
Timeline
Organisation of an expert group meeting for presentation of the draft project outputs
Experts’ inputs for improvement of the papers.
Paris, End February 2016
Sharing of draft policy document with OHRLLS, LDC delegations to UN and international development partners
Inputs from New York – based policy makers and experts through a high level meeting.
New York, Early April 2016
Organisation and delivery of a high-level side event at the Mid-Term Review Meeting in Antalya
Improved awareness of policymakers and experts regarding the current developmental challenges of the LDCs.
Antalya End May 2016
Consolidation and finalisation of the Monitor’s output
Final output ready for dissemination
End April 2016
Implementation Modality
CPD will work as the Secretariat of the initiative. LDC IV Monitor has already implemented a number of similar activities during the first phase of the initiative (2011-2015). The track record of LDC IV Monitor (available on its website www.ldc4monitor.org) indicates that its partners including CPD (as its Secretariat), have the capacity to implement all the envisaged activities. The partners are all highly credible global institutions – Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Dhaka; Commonwealth Secretariat (ComSec), London; Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF), Dar es Salaam; Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International (FERDI), Clermont-Ferrand; Galatasaray University (GSU), Istanbul; International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD), Geneva; and OECD Development Centre, Paris.
Thanks to its reputed partners, LDC IV Monitor has a strong convening capacity to bring key stakeholders from around the world, it is expected that the initiative will be able to produce high quality research-based outputs, ensure effective dissemination of the policy messages and attain the expected outcome in terms of improved evidence-based understanding about the development challenges currently facing the LDCs. It can be justifiably argued that the initiative can claim distinction on the ground of its focus – least developed countries; its modality of implementation – through a partnership of some of the leading think tanks from around the world and capacity to implement – LDC IV Monitor’s track record in undertaking similar exercise, on time and with high quality of delivery. It is hoped that, Monitor’s excellent outreach and policy influencing capacity will enable the outputs in reaching to wider audience within the LDCs and beyond.
CPD will work as the Secretariat of the initiative. LDC IV Monitor has already implemented a number of similar activities during the first phase of the initiative (2011-2015). The track record of LDC IV Monitor (available on its website www.ldc4monitor.org) indicates that its partners including CPD (as its Secretariat), have the capacity to implement all the envisaged activities. The partners are all highly credible global institutions – Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Dhaka; Commonwealth Secretariat (ComSec), London; Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF), Dar es Salaam; Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International (FERDI), Clermont-Ferrand; Galatasaray University (GSU), Istanbul; International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD), Geneva; and OECD Development Centre, Paris.
Thanks to its reputed partners, LDC IV Monitor has a strong convening capacity to bring key stakeholders from around the world, it is expected that the initiative will be able to produce high quality research-based outputs, ensure effective dissemination of the policy messages and attain the expected outcome in terms of improved evidence-based understanding about the development challenges currently facing the LDCs. It can be justifiably argued that the initiative can claim distinction on the ground of its focus – least developed countries; its modality of implementation – through a partnership of some of the leading think tanks from around the world and capacity to implement – LDC IV Monitor’s track record in undertaking similar exercise, on time and with high quality of delivery. It is hoped that, Monitor’s excellent outreach and policy influencing capacity will enable the outputs in reaching to wider audience within the LDCs and beyond.
The core objective of the proposed initiative is to contribute towards promoting inclusive growth through improvement of global governance in connection with the implementation of the IPoA. In doing so, LDC IV monitor will provide inputs from independent sources (rising above the traditional North-South divide) which are outside the intergovernmental process and feed into the preparatory discourse of the MTR.
The envisaged initiative will undertake the following four activities.
The initiative intends to have the following four outputs.
1. Examination of structural transformation and diversification in LDCs
The paper will track and assess the progress that has been made by individual LDCs since the adoption of the IPoA, in terms of attainment of structural transformation and inclusive growth in the economies. The variables against which this progress will need to be tested may include, inter alia, economic growth, macroeconomic stability, - composition of the GDP, investment, productive capacities, development of infrastructure, diversification of export basket, technology content of exports, structure of employment, skills enhancement, poverty and income distribution. The impact of slow global economic recovery, the falling commodity prices, and other global developments, and the consequent implications for economies will also need to be captured from the perspective of their relevance for structural transformation in the LDCs. In undertaking this study, the IPoA commitments in relevant areas, on the part of LDC governments, development partners and jointly, will be carefully examined.
2. Graduation status and prospect of LDCs
The IPoA had set the target of halving the number of LDCs by 2020. In view of this, the paper will review the progress made by individual LDCs against the three criteria for LDC graduation, and map where the LDCs stood in respect of those measures. Towards this end, the recent changes in the methodologies will also be taken into cognisance. Till date only two countries have graduated from the group, viz. Maldives in 2011 and Samoa in 2014. Equatorial Guinea and Vanuatu are scheduled to be taken out of the list of LDCs in June 2017 and December 2017, respectively. Another eight countries have made notable progress. The paper will identify a select group of LDCs which were on course towards graduation by 2020 examine the alignment of the graduation strategies with the inclusive growth strategies in these countries and identify areas where a thrust in policy interventions will be needed, both at domestic and global levels, in order to help these countries to successfully complete the journey by 2020. The study will also try to anticipate factors which will need to be kept in mind, and addressed, if the graduation is to be sustainable. The paper will also identify LDCs which were lagging behind in the race for graduation, identify the major reasons, and propose initiatives which will be necessary to help them stay on course for graduation. The study will also examine the relevant IPoA commitments by the LDC governments, development partners and jointly towards this end.
3. Implications of 2030 Agenda for LDCs in a comparative perspective
Given the vast landscape of commitments under SDGs, LDCs will have to set their own priorities at the country level for implementation. It is important to recognise that, not all LDCs are on the same plane towards implementing 2030 Agenda. In this context, the paper will examine the comparative situation of LDCs. Institutional strengthening, capacity development and awareness building will be crucial. However, global partnership and commitments in areas such as finance, trade, technology transfer etc. will also play key role in achieving SDGs.
4. Understanding emerging (and new) global challenges on LDCs
The study will identify the emerging and new challenges for LDCs. How existing challenges such as climate change and new challenges in the forms of migration and refugee crisis are going to influence the development paradigm in LDCs are of great concern. This is particularly important from the perspective of concessional financial flow to LDCs. With emerging and new challenges, LDCs, are at risk of receiving lower ODA and other support. Whether and how far that will have implications for LDCs’ graduation are issues to be examined.The study will make policy recommendations for addressing those challenges.
The proposed contribution will build on the two seminal reports of the LDC IV Monitor, viz. “Istanbul Programme of Action for the LDCs (2011-2020): Monitoring Deliverables, Tracking Progress – Analytical Perspectives” and the “Istanbul Program of Action for the LDCs (2011-2020): Monitoring Deliverables, Tracking Progress – Synthesis Report.”
Thus the immediate use of the outputs (resources) generated through the initiative will be in the context of the preparatory process of the MTR of IPoA. Concretely, the outputs of the initiative will be shared with wide-ranging stakeholders and fed into the official (UN) process. As the IPoA has a ten-year time horizon (till 2021), the outputs will be used as a reference document in the coming years by those concerned with development challenges of the LDCs, particularly in the context of implementation of Agenda 2030.
Once the outputs are ready, LDC IV Monitor will seek opportunities for their wider presentation in different platforms.
It is expected that these activities will bring-in fresh perspectives imbuing the preparatory process with pluralistic assessment. More specifically, the initiative will result in:
The proposed initiative will be implemented by the LDC IV Monitor during January-July 2016.
Activities | Output | Timeline
Organisation of an expert group meeting for presentation of the draft project outputs | Experts’ inputs for improvement of the papers. | Paris, End February 2016
Sharing of draft policy document with OHRLLS, LDC delegations to UN and international development partners | Inputs from New York – based policy makers and experts through a high level meeting. | New York, Early April 2016
Organisation and delivery of a high-level side event at the Mid-Term Review Meeting in Antalya | Improved awareness of policymakers and experts regarding the current developmental challenges of the LDCs. | Antalya End May 2016
Consolidation and finalisation of the Monitor’s output | Final output ready for dissemination | End April 2016
Time
Session 8:45-9:15 Welcome Coffee/Tea 9:15-9:45
Scene setting: Background, context, objectives, process outputs and outcomes Open floor discussion Concluding remarks by the Chair Panel Members: Chair: Federico Bonaglia, OECD Development Centre Speaker: Debapriya Bhattacharya, CPD 9:45-11:15 Session 1. Examination of structural transformation and diversification in LDCs: To evaluate the progress made by individual LDCs since the adoption of the IPoA, in terms of attainment of structural transformation and inclusive ecenomic growth in the economies. The variables against which progress will be tested may include economic growth, macroeconomic stability, composition and diversification of the GDP, investment, productive capacities, productivity trends, development of infrastructure, diversification of export basket, technology content of exports, energy content, structure of employment, formal – informal employment composition, skills enhancement, poverty and income distribution. To examine the impact of slow global economic recovery, falling commodity prices and other global developments, and consequent implications for LDC economies. Open floor discussion Concluding remarks by the Chair Panel Members: Chair: Mustafizur Rahman, CPD Speaker: Jodie Keane, ComSec Discussants: 1. Ratnakar Adhikari, EIF 2. Mehmet Arda, EDAM (TBC) 3. Alassane Drabo, FERDI 11:15-12:45 Session 2. Graduation status and prospect of LDCs: To identify a select group of LDCs which were on course towards graduation by 2020; what has worked and what has not; examine the alignment of the graduation strategies with the inclusive growth strategies in these countries and identify areas where a thrust in policy interventions will be needed to allow graduation by 2020. To anticipate factors to be kept in mind and addressed, if the graduation is to be sustainable. To identify LDCs lagging behind in graduation along with major reasons behind the phenomenon, and to consequently propose initiatives to help them stay on course for graduation. Open floor discussion Concluding remarks by the Chair Panel Members: Chair: Tausi Kida, ESRF Speaker: Patrick Guillaumont, FERDI
Discussants: 1. Mohammad Razzaque, ComSec 2. Christophe Bellmann, ICTSD (TBC) 3. OECD (TBC) 12:45-14:00 Lunch break – Cafeteria (ground floor) 14:00-15:30
Session 3. Implications of 2030 Agenda and Addis Ababa action agenda (AAAA) for IPoA : To examine the comparative situation of LDCs in view of 2030 agenda and AAAA. Given the commitments under SDGs, LDCs will have to set individual country-level priorities for implementation; not all LDCs are on the same plane regarding benchmark and progression towards SDG implementation. Institutional strengthening, capacity development and awareness building will be crucial. Global partnership and commitments in areas such as finance, trade, technology transfer etc. will also play key role in achieving SDGs. To review the delivery of global commitments towards LDCs, particularly in light of IPoA, with regard to attainment of SDGs. Open floor discussion Concluding remarks by the Chair Panel Members: Chair: Christophe Bellmann, ICTSD (TBC) Speaker: Mustafizur Rahman, CPD Discussants: 1. Rorden Wilkinson, University of Sussex 2. Tausi Kida, ESRF 3. Suzanne Steensen (OECD/DCD) 16:00-17:30 Session 4. Understanding emerging (and new) global challenges on LDCs: To identify emerging and new challenges for LDCs. Concerns as regards how existing challenges such as climate change and new challenges in the forms of migration and refugee crisis are going to influence the development paradigm in LDCs are of great concern. This is particularly important from the perspective of concessional financial flows to LDCs. With emerging and new challenges, LDCs, are at risk of receiving lower ODA and other support. Whether and how far that will have implications for LDCs’ graduation are among the issues to be examined. Open floor discussion Concluding remarks by the Chair Panel members: Chair: Patrick Guillaumont, FERDI Speaker: Carl Dahlman, OECD Development Centre (TBC) Discussants: 1. Rorden Wilkinson, University of Sussex 2. Hoseana Bohela Lunogelo, ESRF 3. Alassane Drabo, FERDI 17:30-18:00 Wrap up discussion: Responsibilities and timeline of deliverables Open floor discussion Concluding remarks by the Chair Panel Members: Chair: Debapriya Bhattacharya, CPD Speaker: Jodie Keane, ComSec
